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- RUSSIA's relations with the West were yesterday gripped by one of the
sharpest frosts since the end of the Cold War after Moscow withdrew its
ambassador to Britain "for consultations" in a protest over the
air strikes against Iraq.
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- The move, which followed the recall of
Russia's envoy to Washington, came amid a second day of angry and indignant
declarations from Moscow, including a threat to re-assess its entire security
strategy.
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- The Prime Minister, Yevgeny Primakov,
declared that the bombardment of Iraq "violates the entire world order
established after the Second World War".
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- And Russia's ascendant Communists, the
largest force in parliament, confirmed they had no intention of considering
the ratification of the Start-2 arms-reduction treaty.
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- Western diplomats were yesterday gloomily
surveying the political damage done by Operation Desert Fox to the arms-
reduction process - Start-2, after faltering signs of life, is now dead
in the water - and to their efforts to end the distrust that surrounds
Moscow's relations with Nato.
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- "Unfortunately, things will now
stagnate," said one. Evidence of that came when Russia's Defence Minister,
Marshal Igor Sergeyev, decided not to attend a meeting of the Nato-Russia
Permanent Council, dispatching a less senior official in his place.
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- However, the Kremlin needs the West,
and it knows it. It tacitly acknowledged the weakness of its position by
emphasising that there was no question of severing relations with the United
States and Britain.
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- The row over Iraq must not be allowed
to "slide into confrontation," said a spokesman.
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- The withdrawal of Yuri Fokin, Moscow's
ambassador to London, marks the first such occasion since the Soviet Union
pulled out its envoy in 1971 in a tit-for-tat spy row in which Britain
expelled 105 Soviet diplomats.
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- The Foreign Office yesterday sought to
play down Russia's outrage, saying that Robin Cook, the Foreign Secretary,
had a "friendly" conversation with his Russian counterpart, Igor
Ivanov.
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- Both the British and the Americans expressed
confidence that the relationship with Russia - already chilled by the new
government of Mr Primakov and the current economic melt-down - would survive.
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- To the apparent puzzlement of Washington,
the Russians have also responded to the Iraq crisis by moving troops and
placing some military installations on heightened alert.
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- The US Secretary of State, Madeleine
Albright, said the purpose of the troop movements was unclear, although
the Kremlin explained them as a routine response to heightened international
tensions.
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- In reality, Russia is in a bind. It feels
genuinely aggrieved by the US and Britain's decision to bypass the UN Security
Council - one of the few forums in which Moscow feels it has a measure
of the diplomatic weight it enjoyed in Soviet times.
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- In this case, its highly coveted status
as one of five permanent members has proved next to worthless.
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- It also has plenty of reasons to speak
up for Saddam Hussein. Moscow has already signed dozens of lucrative contracts,
including weapons sales, with Baghdad which will kick in once UN sanctions
are lifted. Iraq also owes it about $8bn in Soviet-era debts, which the
impoverished Russians would dearly love to bank.
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- For the same reason, Moscow hopes that
its current loyalty - a follow-on from the era in which thousands of Soviet
engineers and advisers worked in Iraq - will be repaid with some fat deals,
notably in the oil and construction sector, when the day arrives when a
sanctions-free Baghdad finally begins to rebuild.
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- And it will be also looking for some
international diplomatic gains - stronger ties, for example, with the Arab
world which will allow it to further its general policy of challenging
US supremacy and pushing for a "multi-polar" international political
environment.
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- Yet Russia - as the Pentagon well knows
- is also acutely aware that it needs the United States and the West, particularly
after the precipitous economic collapse that began in August.
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- Telling evidence of that came yesterday
when an aide for Yuri Maslyukov, First Deputy Prime Minister, said the
Iraq crisis should not affect Russia's current talks with the International
Monetary Fund, from which Moscow needs funds if it is to avoid a gaping
hole in next year's budget.
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- With equal eagerness, officials said
that negotiations with Washington over a $850m food-aid deal were proceeding
as planned, despite the bombing raids.
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- It seems that Russia is prepared to bark
at the hand that feeds it, but it is unlikely to bite it.
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